Lovie Smith......Are you listening? Pigskinrevolution.com Esquire magazine recently asked us to name 3 common errors that NFL coaches repeatedly make.  The largest of these, as mentioned in the December issue, is the routine field goal on 4th and short after a long drive deep into opposing territory.   Coaches want something to show for their efforts, often without regard for score and clock.  Nowhere was this more evident than late in the 4th quarter with the Bears driving on the Patriots for a potential tying score.  With 3:36 left in the 4th quarter and trailing 17-10 the Bears faced a 4th and 6 on the Patriots 14 yard line.  Lovie Smith elected to kick the field goal without much thought, and Troy Aikman and Joe Buck seemed unfazed in the broadcast booth. There is not really a softer way to state the facts around this decision.  The Bear's choice to kick the field goal is a whopper error!  7% GWC went down the tubes with this conservative strategy.  Still not convinced?  If the Bears throw an incomplete pass it costs them about 5% GWC vs. a successful field goal.  If they gain exactly 6 yards and gain a first down they improve their GWC by 15%.  This doesn't even take into account the times when the Bears gain extra yardage or even score a TD on the play.  Not a trivial consideration at all.  So if the Bears convert the 4th and 6 just 25% of the time this decision is a no-brainer.  In reality, they only need to convert approximately 20% of the time with respect to the overage. No matter how you slice it, this decision is a clear blunder.  We often hear the "What ifs" from the readers of pigskinrevolution.   What about momentum?  What about the Bear's great defense?  What about the fact it was a fairly low scoring game?  What about the fact that Grossman wasn't passing well against the Patriots?  All of these considerations can be factored into the ZEUS analysis.  In fact, each of these considerations may reduce the magnitude of the error but none of them individually or in aggregrate, come close to overturning the model's assessment.   This blunder will go down as one of the most memorable of the 2006 season.