Honeymoon’s over, even if your name is Lovie
pigskinrevolution.com
It was fair to say even at the end of last year that the Chicago Bears had a storybook season. With a below average
offense made up for by powerful defense, historic special teams play, and a rather weak regular season schedule, the
Monsters of the Midway waltzed their way to the Super Bowl before finally losing the glass slipper.
Another interesting 2006 season feature appeared in the ZEUS Critical Call Index. Chicago’s playcalling in critical
situations (4th downs, extrapoints, and kickoffs) was second in the league – on the surface quite impressive.
However there was some indication even at that time that the runnerup trophy may have been a bit tarnished. The
units of CCI are game winning chance (GWC) surrendered. In games where the outcome is decided early (as was
the case in many of the Bears’ wins), you can’t cost yourself much in GWC since there isn’t a lot of GWC to waste.
2007 hasn’t been so kind. So far the defense has failed to perform at their 2006 level but the offense has maintained
their underachieving status quo. Entering week five prior to preparing to play their most hated rivals, the Bears were
floundering at 1-3 compared to the surprising undefeated, division leading Packers.
The first half of the game further drove home the above observations. Trailing 0-7 with 3 minutes remaining in the first
quarter the Bears faced 4th and 1 at their own 25. Even with their weak running game (averaging just over 3 yards
per carry), ZEUS pointed out a 0.6% GWC error by punting. Although ZEUS has no sympathy for any playcall error,
the fact is that, as we were told by an NFL assistant, “no coach in the league would do anything but punt in that
situation!” Safety in numbers sometimes protects the erroneous.
After a very short drive by the Pack (ending in a lost fumble), the Bears once again had a chance to make the right
decision on 4th and 1 from their own 47. Now ZEUS hits them with a 3.1% error for punting, the field position (better if
you make it; not as bad if you don’t) leading to a much costlier error than the previous flagged play.
The second half didn’t begin much better. After a gift pooch kick by the fearful Packers gave the Bears very good
field position, they marched down the field in six plays but stalled at the Packers 26 yard line. Trailing by 10 they
settled for a field goal with 4th and 2. “Stalled” resulted from a mental error since the proper action (according to
ZEUS) was to go for the first down, the magnitude of the error being 1.5% GWC.
Lest you think we are unfairly picking on the Bears, rest easy. The Packers gave up as much on one play as the
Bears did in the above three. With 2:41 remaining in the 3rd quarter and finding themselves tied with the rejuvenated
Bears, Green Bay faced 4th and 2 from their own 29. Based upon their strong passing game potential, Zeus slaps
them with a 5.4% error when they go the conservative punting route. As it turns out Green Bay never scores again but
the Bears later add 10 points to win the game by 7.
Finally let’s not forget the dynamic duo NBC announcers Madden and Michaels. With 8:33 left in the second quarter,
the Bears trailed by seven and faced 4th and 3 on the Packer 18 yard line. ZEUS concludes that the decision to go
for the first down or try the field goal is a tossup. Not surprisingly, the Bears attempted (and made) the 3-pointer. But
Green Bay committed a five yard penalty on the play so Chicago had the choice of accepting 1st and 10 from the
Packer 13 or declining and kicking off trailing by 4. Chicago took the first down without hesitation, but got second
guessed by Al Michaels for “taking the points off of the board”, a no-no among old-school helmet heads. He tried to
get compatriot John Madden to agree but to no avail as all Madden wanted to do was discuss the validity of the
penalty call. In the end Michaels compromised that it was a close decision and ZEUS disagrees.