Jaguars Complicate the Task Pigskinrevolution.com Jacksonville took their turn this Sunday to try and stop the Indianapolis juggernaut.  If you have been following the Colts this year, it may appear they score every time they are on offense.  While this isn’t quite true, the following statistic is.  The Colts have only punted 35 times going into Sunday’s contest.  Remarkably, the remainder of the NFL is averaging 59 punt attempts!  The next fewest total belongs to the Bengals with 47.  The message in the data is an obvious one:  If you want a chance at defeating the Colts, do everything you can to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands. It didn’t take long for Jacksonville to have an opportunity to test this strategy.  Just 4 minutes into the game on the opening drive, they faced a 4th and 1 on the Colts 43 yard line.  However, the Jaguars decided to punt the ball away, and Manning and the Colts took advantage.  Just a few minutes later the Jaguars found themselves in a 7-0 deficit.  ZEUS  says punting is a clear blunder as Jacksonville sacrificed 3.4% GWC (expected Game Winning Chance).  In fact, even if the Jaguars knew their punt would be downed at the 5 yard line (it actually went out of bounds at the 21 yard line),  punting would still be a significant error (1.5% GWC). At the end of the 1st quarter, the Jaguars again faced a 4th down in Indianapolis territory.  This time Jacksonville was trailing 7- 0 and needed 7 yards for the first down, considerably more than the previous situation.  Again they chose to punt the ball over to the potent Colts offense.  Although not quite as significant as their earlier error, ZEUS  still assesses the Jaguars with a 2.0% GWC mistake.  Before the 1st quarter expired, Jacksonville had cost themselves a staggering 5.5% GWC.  If you are going to give yourselves a chance to beat one of the most powerful offenses in NFL history, this is not the way to start the game. Jacksonville’s conservative playcalling was not confined to the first quarter. With just 1:54 remaining in the game the Jaguars had fought back to trail by only a touchdown and a 2-point conversion.  Instead of attempting to get the ball back immediately with an onside kick, they again gave the Colts offense another chance.  By choosing a normal kickoff rather than the onside variety, the Jaguars cost themselves an additional 1.8% GWC. This is particularly significant when considering even the correct choice would have only provided an approximate 3% chance of winning the game.  In other words, they cost themselves more than half of what little chance they had. By choosing the more conservative route on the early 4th down decisions, the Jaguars took the game out of their own hands and placed it in the capable hands of Peyton Manning and company.  Although going for the first downs provided no guarantees, on average the more aggressive actions were optimal for many reasons – not the least of which is the scoring efficiency of the Indianapolis offense.   In the end, all the Jaguars had to show for their conservative efforts was a respectable 26-18 loss.  Respect is small consolation when the goal is a win.