How Not to Beat the Colts
pigskinrevolution.com
After a disappointing loss to the Colts on Sunday, Mike Shanahan reflected, “You either get it done or you don’t, and
we didn’t”. Well at least he accurately used the word “we” in his post-game assessment, and didn’t place all of the
blame on his players. We have to wonder whether a couple of key directional decisions in the first half were
considered within his critique.
The Broncos jumped out to an early 10 – 0 lead against the Colts and must have been feeling cautiously optimistic.
As we have witnessed many times in the past, there is no such thing as a comfortable lead against the high-powered
Indianapolis offense. After a Colt’s touchdown and another successful drive by the Broncos, Denver faced a 4th and 2
at the Colt’s 4 yard line midway through the 2nd quarter. Leading 10-7 Shanahan decided to kick the field goal and
hand the ball back to Peyton Manning and Co. with a 6 point lead. Ah….temporary bliss. Leading the defending
Super Bowl champs on their home field - Does it get any better than that?
ZEUS finds serious fault with Shanahan’s decision. 4.2% GWC to be exact. The choice to kick the field goal in this
situation would be a blunder against any team in the NFL, and it is particularly shallow thinking with respect to the Colts
At the 2:00 minute mark of the 1st half, the Broncos made matters even worse. It may not seem obvious to consider
converting a 4th and 1 on your own 29 yard line, but it is absolutely the clear choice here. Again, this would be the
correct decision against any opponent but is particularly important against a foe that figures to put up a lot of points.
Here, the Broncos squandered another 2.5% GWC by opting for the punt.
Finally, with 8:41 remaining in the game and trailing 35 – 20, the Broncos again punted. This time they faced a 4th
and 7 from their own 35 yard line. Compared to the other 2 errors, this one seems relatively small (0.4% GWC).
However, it is important to note that the Broncos only have about 1.7% GWC to start with in this position. They
disposed of nearly ¼ of what meager winning chances they still possessed.
Mike Shanahan had good company on the opposing sideline. Despite his recent Super Bowl credentials, Tony
Dungy is one of the worst play-callers in the NFL when it comes to critical decisions (see 2006 CCI rankings). As we
have said before, Dungy has a Ferrari and drives it like a Volkswagen. Fortunately, he has a guy by the name of
Peyton and a pretty good supporting cast to keep his poor decision-making out of the spotlight. By games end, the
Broncos and the Colts both tallied some pretty significant error rates.
Final score: (Broncos -7.1% GWC, Colts -4.9% GWC).